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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising together. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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