🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Profited $436K on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of American actions. Sudden Shift in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the hours before President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been seized. One account, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Platform data shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also earned significant sums from predicting the capture. Political Attention Emerges Elected officials are growing concerned. Proposed legislation introduced on recently aims to prohibit public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have grown significantly in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."