A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
